Viendo archivo del viernes, 16 mayo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 136 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 May 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due to returning regions emerging from the east limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. Solar wind velocity continues to decrease as the previous coronal hole rotates across the west limb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels for the next two days, with active conditions possible on day three of the period due to a coronal hole passing into geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 May a 19 May
Clase M05%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 May 103
  Previsto   17 May-19 May  110/115/120
  Media de 90 Días        16 May 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 15 May  019/023
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 16 May  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  010/012-010/012-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 May a 19 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%30%
Tormenta Menor10%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%35%
Tormenta Menor15%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
VII. Comments The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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