Viendo archivo del jueves, 15 mayo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 135 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 May 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar

IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z

IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica

III. Probabilidades del evento 16 May a 18 May

Clase M	10%	15%	20%
Clase X	01%	01%	01%
Protón	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo

  Observado       15 May 099
  Previsto   16 May-18 May  105/110/120
  Media de 90 Días        15 May 123

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A

  Observado Afr/Ap 14 May  017/027
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 May  015/022
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  010/015-010/015-015/015

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 May a 18 May

A. Latitudes Medias
Activo	25%	25%	25%
Tormenta Menor	15%	10%	10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	05%	01%	01%

B. Latitudes Altas
Activo	35%	35%	35%
Tormenta Menor	15%	15%	15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	05%	05%	05%

VII. Comments The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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