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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 135 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 May 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 361 (N09E39) and Region 362 (S10E77).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due to active regions emerging from the east limb. New region 362 may produce isolated flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due to a high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next three days. Solar wind speeds should continue to reduce over the next few days, and may cause isolated minor storm levels on day one.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 May a 18 May
Clase M10%15%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 May 099
  Previsto   16 May-18 May  105/110/120
  Media de 90 Días        15 May 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 May  017/027
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 May  015/022
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  010/015-010/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 May a 18 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%25%25%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%35%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
VII. Comments The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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