Viendo archivo del miércoles, 14 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 134 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 360 (at S04 W19)
was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar actvity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 24 hours. Two new active regions on the
east limb (returning Regions 336 at latitude N13 and 337 at S12) may
become the source of isolated C-class flares in the following days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to high speed solar wind streams from a favorably positioned coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next day,
falling off to unsettled to active on days two and three. The
coronal hole causing high speed solar wind streams is rotating out
of geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 May a 17 May
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 May 096 Previsto 15 May-17 May 105/110/115 Media de 90 Días 14 May 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 May 024/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 May 025/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 020/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 May a 17 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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