Viendo archivo del sábado, 10 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 130 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. No significant flares have
occurred in the last 24 hours, and no new regions have been
numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels from
yesterday through 10/1600 UTC. Since then conditions have been
predominately unsettled. The high speed solar wind continues, but
has lessened from the 750-900 km/s of yesterday to a steady 620
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to be at high
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for the next day,
with an increase to unsettled to minor storm levels beginning at the
end of tomorrow due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. There
is a chance for periods of major storm levels beginning on day two,
and into day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 May a 13 May
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 May 093 Previsto 11 May-13 May 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 10 May 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 May 020/029 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 May 020/042 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 015/020-020/025-025/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 May a 13 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 20% | 25% |
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