Viendo archivo del viernes, 9 mayo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 129 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 May 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There was one C-class event during the past 24 hours, a C3 at 0048 UTC from behind the west limb at about S15 (Region 349). New Region 356 (N15E63) was assigned today and is a small D-type sunspot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels from the beginning of the period through about 09/1500 UTC. Since then conditions have been predominantly unsettled. Solar wind observations show persistence of high speed solar wind (750-900 km/s) and weak to moderate oscillations in Bz for most of the day. However, there did appear to be a slight decline in speed beginning after 1830 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to be at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days due to persistence. An increase to mostly active is expected on the third day as yet another coronal hole will be rotating into favorable position at that time.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 May a 12 May
Clase M15%10%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 May 097
  Previsto   10 May-12 May  100/100/105
  Media de 90 Días        09 May 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 08 May  022/030
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 09 May  020/036
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  015/020-015/020-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 May a 12 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%35%40%
Tormenta Menor15%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%40%
Tormenta Menor20%20%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%20%

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