Viendo archivo del miércoles, 7 mayo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 07 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 127 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 May 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Today's flare activity consisted of occasional C-class flares, mostly from Region 348 (S34W80) and Region 349 (S14W86). The largest event of the day, however, was a C5 at 2049 UTC from a new region behind east limb at about N17. A 10 degree filament near S10W18 disappeared between 1342 UTC and 1403 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days. An overall downward trend in activity levels and in the background levels is expected over the next three days with the departure of regions 348 and 349.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for most of the day. An interval of major storm levels was observed at mid and high latitudes from 0600-0900 UTC. Today's activity resulted from the persistence of a high speed solar wind stream (velocities ranging from 670 to 750 km/s) accompanied by weakly to moderately negative Bz (-5 to -10 nT). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to be at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours, with a chance for some isolated storm intervals, as the current high speed solar wind stream is expected to continue. A slight decline in activity levels to unsettled to active is expected on the second and third days. Conditions should stay somewhat elevated relative to quiet, however, as a new coronal hole will be rotating into a geoeffective location.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 May a 10 May
Clase M40%30%25%
Clase X05%01%01%
Protón05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 May 110
  Previsto   08 May-10 May  105/100/095
  Media de 90 Días        07 May 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 May  015/023
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 May  032/037
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  015/020-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 May a 10 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%30%30%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%30%30%
Tormenta Menor25%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%15%

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