Viendo archivo del domingo, 4 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 124 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S15W47)
produced a long duration C1 event at 04/0301 UTC which was visible
in the GOES Solar x-ray imagery. This region continues to fluctuate
daily in white light area and sunspot count, but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 348 (S35W44) has grown in
area and sunspot count since yesterday and also developed a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 353 (S16E33) and 354
(N19E58) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 348 and 349 have the potential to produce a low
level M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for 05 May.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 06 May - 07 May as a
result of a coronal hole high speed flow.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 May a 07 May
| Clase M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 May 142 Previsto 05 May-07 May 135/130/125 Media de 90 Días 04 May 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 May 007/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 May 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 015/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 May a 07 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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