Viendo archivo del miércoles, 30 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 120 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 349 (S13E07)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 29/2349Z along with a number of other
minor C-class flares. This region continues steady growth and there
is some weak polarity mixing in the southern intermediate spot.
Region 344 (N15W41) has entered a decay phase but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered
today: Region 350 (S12W59) and Region 351 (N06E76).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 349 has the potential for M-class
events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. Most
of the activity was at active to minor storm levels. Periods of
southward Bz early in the day resulted in an isolated period of
major storm levels. Solar wind speed gradually increased throughout
the day to near 650 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. A combination of
transient flow and coronal hole high speed flow are expected to keep
the geomagnetic field disturbed for day one and day two of the
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 May a 03 May
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Apr 154 Previsto 01 May-03 May 150/145/140 Media de 90 Días 30 Apr 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Apr 013/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Apr 033/039 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 015/025-015/025-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 May a 03 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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