Viendo archivo del martes, 29 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 119 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 337
(S16W67) produced an M1/1f flare at 0459Z. Region 337 appears to
have lost its delta magnetic configuration since producing the M1
flare, but continues to produce minor C-class flares. Region 349
(S13E20) has exhibited significant growth in area and spot count
over the last twenty-four hours, and now exceeds 40 spots and over
500 millionths of white light coverage. This region has produced a
number of minor C-class flares.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 337 and 349 have the potential for
M-class events. Region 349 could produce a major event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind
velocity remains elevated near 550 km/s. Transient flow has
produced periods of southward Bz that resulted in isolated active
and minor storm conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. A returning coronal hole is
expected to rotate into a geo-effective position on day one of the
period and may produce active to isolated minor storm levels during
the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Apr a 02 May
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Apr 155 Previsto 30 Apr-02 May 155/150/140 Media de 90 Días 29 Apr 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Apr 009/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Apr 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 012/015-015/025-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Apr a 02 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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