Viendo archivo del lunes, 28 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 118 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
337 (S14W53) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.4/Sf
event occurring at 28/0436Z. There was little change to the
penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity noted during the period.
Region 338 (N18W98) has rotated beyond the west limb, although it
did manage to trigger several lesser C-class flares throughout the
day. Region 344 (N16W14) produced the second largest flare of the
interval, a C3.3/Sf occurring at 28/1815Z. This region maintains a
very weak delta complex and magnetically appears to be showing
slight decay. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A very
weak signature from the NASA/ACE data indicate a transient may have
passed around 28/1200Z although the elevated geomagnetic conditions
are believed to be from a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have again reached
high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active for days one and
two of the period as the current coronal hole begins to wane. Minor
storm conditions may occur on day three due to the onset of another
favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Apr a 01 May
| Clase M | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Apr 152 Previsto 29 Apr-01 May 150/150/145 Media de 90 Días 28 Apr 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Apr 011/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Apr 012/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 012/015-012/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Apr a 01 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 15% |
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