Viendo archivo del sábado, 26 abril 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 116 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Apr 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. An abundance of activity was observed today, most of which occurred in Region 338 (N18W71). Region 338 produced a very impulsive M7.0 x-ray flare at 26/0807Z. This region also produced an M2.1/1f flare at 26/0058Z and an M2.1/Sn flare at 26/0306Z along with multiple C-class events. The delta magnetic complex remains intact and penumbral coverage appears to be oscillating with this regions flare production. Region 344 (N16E13) has yet to produce any flare activity although the white-light penumbral coverage and the magnetic complexity of this region have shown rapid growth during the past 24 hours. Yesterday, this region was a simple beta complex which has since developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. Region 337 (S14W26) was quiescent through most of the period. Regions 347 (S20E36), 348 (S36E58), and 349 (S14E60) were newly numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Influences from yesterdays favorably positioned coronal hole have waned as the solar wind speed has dropped to approximately 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible with the onset of a favorably positioned coronal hole on days one and two. Elevated field levels are possible through the interval due to weak transient passages resulting from the flare activity of the past several days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Apr a 29 Apr
Clase M70%70%50%
Clase X15%15%05%
Protón05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       26 Apr 144
  Previsto   27 Apr-29 Apr  150/145/140
  Media de 90 Días        26 Apr 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 25 Apr  019/032
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  010/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Apr a 29 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%30%25%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%35%30%
Tormenta Menor30%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%05%

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