Viendo archivo del viernes, 25 abril 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 115 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Apr 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels today. The largest flare of the period was an M1/Sf which occurred at 25/0540Z from Region 346 (N16E61) and had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 814 km/s. There seems to be little magnetic complexity to this region based on a single Hsx spot seen in white-light. Region 337 (S14W13) appears to have changed little since yesterday and remains a beta-gamma magnetic complex. Region 338 (N18W58) produced the majority of the flare activity throughout the interval which was limited to C-class events. Magnetically, this region appears to be in a decay phase as a single delta complex remains apparent verses the several complexes analyzed earlier in the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm levels. High speed solar wind speeds along with embedded transient activity are believed to be responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated major storm conditions possible throughout the period. High speed coronal hole flow may continue to be enhanced by transient activity for the entire interval. A weak CME impact from the M5 flare on April 23 is possible on day one. Further CME effects are possible on day two resulting from the M3 flare that occurred on 24 April. The M1 that occurred today may have a very weak impact late on day two into day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Apr a 28 Apr
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 Apr 144
  Previsto   26 Apr-28 Apr  145/150/145
  Media de 90 Días        25 Apr 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 Apr  024/024
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  020/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Apr a 28 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo45%45%30%
Tormenta Menor25%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%40%45%
Tormenta Menor30%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%20%15%

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