Viendo archivo del miércoles, 23 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 113 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels this period.
Region 338 (N18W32) produced an M5/1n flare at 23/0106Z. Type II
(513 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a 380 sfu tenflare were
associated with this event. A partial halo CME was also detected on
LASCO imagery. An M2/1f flare also occurred in this region at
23/1556Z. This complex region continues to develop in both size and
magnetic complexity. Region 339 (N16W84) was quite active as it
approaches the west limb. It produced several C-class flares, the
largest being a C5 flare at 23/1213Z. No significant changes were
observed in the remaining active regions. New Region 343 (N06E60)
was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 338 maintains potential for further M-class
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind
speeds near 500 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Ongoing high
speed coronal hole flow will likely be enhanced by transient flow
over the next three days. Weak impact from the April 22, M2 flare
and CME are possible on day one. There is a higher probability for
CME impacts on days two and three from the M5 and associated CME
that occurred early this period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Apr a 26 Apr
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Apr 133 Previsto 24 Apr-26 Apr 135/140/145 Media de 90 Días 23 Apr 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Apr 013/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Apr 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Apr a 26 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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