Viendo archivo del jueves, 17 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 107 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. There was a single
minor B-class event during the past 24 hours. A new Region 336
(N12E75) was numbered today. All spotted regions on the disk
continue to be small, quiet, and stable. There has been a slow
increase in background levels due to the arrival of the new region.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. The background levels are likely to continue to increase
slightly with the addition of regions which are now visible in GOES
Solar x-ray imagery behind East limb at N20 and S25.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours with a minor storm period from 0300-0900 UTC in the mid
latitudes, and a minor storm period at high latitudes from both
0300-1200 UTC and 1500-1800 UTC. The coronal-hole induced high speed
solar wind flow continues. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active but decreasing to unsettled within the
next 24 hours as the current disturbance transitions out of
geoeffective range. Continued unsettled levels are expected for days
two and three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Apr a 20 Apr
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Apr 101 Previsto 18 Apr-20 Apr 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 17 Apr 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Apr 013/031 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Apr 029/033 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Apr a 20 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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