Viendo archivo del lunes, 14 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 104 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only C-class event was a C1 at 0930 UTC from Region 335
(S22E57). Region 334 (S08E29) exhibited the brightest plage
throughout the day but was not able to muster a flare-level event.
Region 330 (N07W57) continues to be the largest group on the disk
but was stable and quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, with a
period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes from 1200-1500
UTC. The enhanced activity was associated with an extended interval
of moderately strong (-5 to -10 nT) southward orientation of the
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component between 1100-1500 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high levels early in the
day but dropped below 1000 PFU after 0525 UTC. Solar wind speed and
temperature showed a gradual increasing trend during the last four
hours of the day, which may indicate the beginning of a high speed
solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with occasional active periods
over the next three days. There is a chance for some isolated storm
periods at high latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Apr 102 Previsto 15 Apr-17 Apr 100/095/095 Media de 90 Días 14 Apr 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Apr 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Apr 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 012/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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