Viendo archivo del domingo, 13 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 103 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only C-class flare was a C2/Sf from Region 330 (N07W57) at
0854 UTC. New Region 335 (S22E57) was assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for additional isolated C-class
flare events during the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
declined steadily during the past 24 hours with day end values
between 450 to 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were
at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days, with a
chance for some isolated active periods. A coronal hole will be
rotating to a favorable position sometime between 15 and 17 April
and is expected to produce an increase in geomagnetic activity
levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Apr a 16 Apr
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Apr 102 Previsto 14 Apr-16 Apr 100/095/090 Media de 90 Días 13 Apr 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Apr 010/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Apr 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 012/012-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Apr a 16 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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