Viendo archivo del miércoles, 2 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 092 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. There were 4 minor
C-class flares from Regions 321 (N07W40) and 324 (S12W21).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare from Regions
321 (N07W40), 323 (S07W56), 324 (S12W21), or 325 (N10E04).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The high
speed stream that began on 30 March has gained slightly in strength
to nearly 580 km/sec. Intermittently southward Bz has
generated disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor-storm levels due to the continuing
high speed stream, and potential for southward Bz. The high speed
stream should diminish tomorrow, and the geomagnetic field should
end the day at quiet levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Apr a 05 Apr
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Apr 158 Previsto 03 Apr-05 Apr 155/155/150 Media de 90 Días 02 Apr 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Apr 011/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Apr 021/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Apr a 05 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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