Viendo archivo del sábado, 29 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 088 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 318 (S14W20) and 323
(S08W01) exhibited considerable growth this period and between them
produced several C-class flares, including a C8/1f flare from Region
318 at 29/1839Z. Larger Regions 319 (N12W30) and 321 (N04E11) were
uneventful and continue to slowly decay. No significant developments
in the remaining active regions.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The potential for M-class flares is increasing with the
rapid development in Regions 318 and 323.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A
pronounced transient flow with sustained periods of southward Bz in
the interplanetary magnetic field, produced the disturbed periods.
Solar wind speed decreased to less than 400 km/s by end of period,
but continued southward Bz is prolonging the disturbance.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
likely over the next three days. Weak coronal hole effects are
expected on days two and three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Mar a 01 Apr
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Mar 155 Previsto 30 Mar-01 Apr 155/155/150 Media de 90 Días 29 Mar 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Mar 023/024 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Mar 018/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 010/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Mar a 01 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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