Viendo archivo del viernes, 28 marzo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 087 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Mar 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a single C1 flare at 27/2325Z, likely associated with activity from near the southwest limb. Region 319 (N12W18) has stabilized following a period of rapid growth in the previous 24 hours. Despite its moderate size, this region maintains a fairly simple magnetic configuration and has been stable. Region 321 (N04E21) exhibited slight decay and was relatively quiet this period. New Region 326 (S12E74) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Regions 319 and 321 have good potential for C-class flares and a small chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods during local nighttime hours. The most active conditions early in the period were due to a waning high speed coronal hole stream. A weak transient passed the ACE spacecraft between 28/1400 - 1500Z. Predominantly southward Bz in the IMF resulted in active levels late in the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm periods at higher latitudes are possible through day one and again on day three as another weak coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Mar a 31 Mar
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 Mar 147
  Previsto   29 Mar-31 Mar  150/155/150
  Media de 90 Días        28 Mar 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 27 Mar  016/027
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  018/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  012/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Mar a 31 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%25%30%
Tormenta Menor20%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%35%40%
Tormenta Menor25%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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