Viendo archivo del jueves, 27 marzo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 086 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Mar 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 322 (N19, L=348) produced the two largest flares of the period, a C3.6 x-ray flare at 27/0945Z and a C2.3 x-ray flare at 27/1455Z (both correlated using SXI imagery). Region 321 (N05E34) has become a beta-gamma-delta (weak) region which produced several low-level flares during the period. Region 319 (N13W01) has shown rapid development and has become a beta-gamma class group over the past 24 hours. Newly assigned Region 325 (N12E80-old Region 296) has begun to rotate into view and was a large complex region on its previous rotation. New Region 324 (S16E68) was also assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 319 and 321 have the potential of producing M-class flare activity
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/- 10 nT throughout the period due to a recurrent high speed stream (approximately 525 km/s at the time of this writing). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible through day one of the interval due to a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole. Days two and three should see a return to predominantly unsettled levels with intermittent active conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Mar a 30 Mar
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Mar 141
  Previsto   28 Mar-30 Mar  150/155/155
  Media de 90 Días        27 Mar 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Mar  007/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  020/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  012/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Mar a 30 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%25%25%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%30%30%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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