Viendo archivo del martes, 25 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 084 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The
largest flare of the period was a B9.1/Sf from Region 321 (N05E65)
that occurred at 25/1636Z. This region underwent penumbral growth
during the period. Region 319 (N13E27) experienced slight
development during the period and produced a lone B-class flare
early in the day. A small 6 degree disappearing filament was
observed between 25/1700 and 1800Z which was centered at N38W10.
Regions 322 (N19W72) and 323 (S07E55) were newly assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class event
from region 321.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels until the onset of a favorably
positioned recurrent coronal hole. The coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective early on the first day of the forecast period.
Predominantly active conditions are anticipated and minor storm to
major storm periods are possible through the first two days of the
interval. Unsettled to active conditions are expected by day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Mar a 28 Mar
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Mar 109 Previsto 26 Mar-28 Mar 115/125/135 Media de 90 Días 25 Mar 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Mar a 28 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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