Viendo archivo del lunes, 24 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 083 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Newly numbered
Region 321 (N05E78) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.0
x-ray flare (correlated using SXI imagery) occurring at 24/0431Z.
This region is too close to the east limb to ascertain the overall
complexity of the magnetic structure or the regions spot
distribution. The remainder of the active regions were mostly
quiescent throughout the period. Region 320 (N05E07) was also
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period was observed at high latitudes between
24/0600 and 0900Z. The greater than 2 electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels for the first day of the
interval. Days two and three should see predominantly active
conditions with occasional periods of minor storm levels due to an
increase in the solar wind speed, resulting from a favorably
positioned recurrent coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Mar a 27 Mar
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Mar 098 Previsto 25 Mar-27 Mar 105/110/120 Media de 90 Días 24 Mar 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Mar 013/024 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Mar 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 015/015-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Mar a 27 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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