Viendo archivo del viernes, 21 marzo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 080 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Mar 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Two C class flares were produced by Region 314 (S13W94) as it crossed the west limb. A 13 degree filament near N12E59 disappeared at about 0930 UTC, followed by a narrow CME on the northeast limb. Another filament erupted near S24E12 at 0948 UTC. Solar X-ray images indicate a new solar active region near S14 behind the east limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to very low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. High speed solar wind and strong interplanetary magnetic field conditions led to minor storm activity from 0000 to 1200 UTC. Activity decreased to active levels from 1200 to 1500 UTC, and unsettled thereafter. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels were high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods during the next 24 hours due to persistence. Conditions should decline to mostly unsettled during the second and third days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Mar a 24 Mar
Clase M10%05%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Mar 091
  Previsto   22 Mar-24 Mar  095/095/100
  Media de 90 Días        21 Mar 134
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Mar  012/021
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Mar  028/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  015/015-012/010-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Mar a 24 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%20%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%10%08%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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