Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 075 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 314 (S14W26) remained
the most active area by producing a number of small C-class x-ray
flares. Growth of the region continued but at a reduced rate and a
delta configuration formed in the trailer spots. Region 306 (N08W45)
decayed slightly and was relatively stable with regard to flares.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class flares are expected in Region 314. A chance of
a small M-class flare in 314 also exists.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The influence of a coronal
hole high-speed stream continues with solar wind speeds remaining
above 600 km/s and Bz values fluctuating between +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active under the influence of the coronal
hole stream for the next day or so. CME effects are possible on the
second day of the forecast due to a DSF observed on 14 March.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Mar a 19 Mar
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Mar 129 Previsto 17 Mar-19 Mar 130/135/135 Media de 90 Días 16 Mar 139
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Mar 017/024 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Mar 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Mar a 19 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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