Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 074 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 314 (S13W14)
produced a C8.4 flare at 15/2016 UTC and a C3.7 flare at 15/1530
UTC. This region has continued its rapid growth, more than doubling
in area coverage over the past twenty-four hours to 220 millionths.
Increased magnetic complexity in the trailing spots of Region 314
suggest a weak delta configuration may be forming. Region 306
(N07W33) appears to be breaking up and may be developing a weak
delta configuration in the northern portion of the largest spot.
NOAA/SXI imagery indicates a new region, rotating onto the east limb
at N17, as the source of a number of B-class flares and one minor
C-class flare. New Region 315 (N03W74) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 306, 314 and the east limb region at N17 have
C-class potential. Regions 306 and 314 have a slight chance of
M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels with one
period of minor storm levels. Solar wind velocity has been steady
at 600 km/s and Bz has been, on average, slightly southward.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Continued high speed
stream effects are expected on day one and day two of the period.
CME effects from the DSF on 14 March are possible on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Mar a 18 Mar
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Mar 131 Previsto 16 Mar-18 Mar 135/140/140 Media de 90 Días 15 Mar 141
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Mar 016/025 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Mar 021/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Mar a 18 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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