Viendo archivo de sábado, 15 marzo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 074 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Mar 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 314 (S13W14) produced a C8.4 flare at 15/2016 UTC and a C3.7 flare at 15/1530 UTC. This region has continued its rapid growth, more than doubling in area coverage over the past twenty-four hours to 220 millionths. Increased magnetic complexity in the trailing spots of Region 314 suggest a weak delta configuration may be forming. Region 306 (N07W33) appears to be breaking up and may be developing a weak delta configuration in the northern portion of the largest spot. NOAA/SXI imagery indicates a new region, rotating onto the east limb at N17, as the source of a number of B-class flares and one minor C-class flare. New Region 315 (N03W74) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 306, 314 and the east limb region at N17 have C-class potential. Regions 306 and 314 have a slight chance of M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels with one period of minor storm levels. Solar wind velocity has been steady at 600 km/s and Bz has been, on average, slightly southward.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Continued high speed stream effects are expected on day one and day two of the period. CME effects from the DSF on 14 March are possible on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Mar a 18 Mar
Clase M25%25%25%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Mar 131
  Previsto   16 Mar-18 Mar  135/140/140
  Media de 90 Días        15 Mar 141
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Mar  016/025
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  021/022
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Mar a 18 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%35%35%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%35%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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