Viendo archivo del jueves, 13 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 072 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 311 (S12W08)
produced a C1.3/Sf flare at 13/0213 UTC with multiple eruptive
centers. Region 311 has grown slightly over the past twenty-four
hours, most notable was an increase in plage area with numerous
patches forming east of the main spots. New Region 313 (N32E00),
exhibited numerous plage fluctuations. The largest and most complex
spot group on the disk was Region 306 (N07W05). This region has
developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 306 and 311 have the potential for C-class
events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Two separate
periods of isolated active conditions were observed due to Bz
fluctuations near -10 nT. Solar wind velocity remained relatively
steady between 450 - 500 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions. High speed stream effects are expected early in the
period as an equatorial coronal hole rotates into a geo-effective
position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Mar a 16 Mar
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Mar 134 Previsto 14 Mar-16 Mar 130/125/120 Media de 90 Días 13 Mar 141
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Mar 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Mar 017/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 015/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Mar a 16 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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