Viendo archivo del domingo, 9 marzo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 068 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Mar 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels today. The largest flare of the period was a C4.4/Sf event that occurred at 09/0647Z from Region 304 (S11W43). This region also produced a C2.6/Sf flare at 09/007Z and has shown some growth in magnetic complexity since yesterday. Region 306 (N05E47) has shown slight growth in penumbral coverage and was responsible for several B-class flares today. Region 296 (N12W45) was relatively quiet throughout the period and has underwent little change in the past 24 hours. This region retains a weak gamma magnetic structure. New Regions 309 (N05W77), 310 (S16W49), and 311 (S17E45) were newly assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 296 (N12W45) has a slight chance of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions were observed at middle and high latitudes early in the period due southward oscillations in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a chance for isolated active conditions at higher latitudes through the interval.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Mar a 12 Mar
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 Mar 153
  Previsto   10 Mar-12 Mar  150/145/145
  Media de 90 Días        09 Mar 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 08 Mar  011/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  011/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  007/010-007/010-005/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Mar a 12 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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