Viendo archivo del viernes, 7 marzo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 066 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Mar 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 296 (N13W18), a relatively large and moderately complex region, has been dormant for the duration of its transit on the visible disk. This region was in a slow decay phase over the past few days, but still shows some complexity. Region 301 (N22W05) though small, is in a slow growth phase, and exhibited considerable plage fluctuations and minor surging throughout the period. Newly numbered Region 306 (N05E76) rotated into view this period; a relatively large sunspot group is evident, but limb proximity hinders a more thorough analysis. This region was the likely source of a large CME observed off the NE limb early on 6 March. Three other new sunspot groups emerged today and were numbered as 303 (S18W47), 304 (S13W16), and 305 (S22E27).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 296, 301, and 306 all have potential for C-class flares. There is a slight chance for an M-class flare from Regions 296 and 306.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods were observed during local nighttime hours at all latitudes. The high speed coronal hole stream responsible for the disturbed periods over the past few days has gradually declined to near normal levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible at mostly higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Mar a 10 Mar
Clase M15%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 Mar 150
  Previsto   08 Mar-10 Mar  155/160/160
  Media de 90 Días        07 Mar 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 Mar  015/025
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  012/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  010/012-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Mar a 10 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%25%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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