Viendo archivo del miércoles, 5 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 064 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several B-class subflares were
observed mostly from Regions 296 (N11E08), 301 (N22E22), and 302
(N19E50). Region 296 remains the largest sunspot group on the
visible disk with near 550 millionths of white light areal coverage.
Though this region has shown some decay in coverage, it is the
likely source of several weak to moderate radio bursts, including a
460 sfu tenflare from a B6/Sf flare at 05/0301Z. No significant
changes were observed in the remaining active regions.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Isolated C-class flares are possible with a chance of an M-class
flare from Region 296.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Mostly unsettled
conditions prevailed early in the period in response to a waning
high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind data indicated another
high speed stream onset at around 1300Z, preceded by a weak
co-rotating interaction region. Solar wind speed ranged from 500 -
550 km/s for the latter half of the period and isolated active
periods were observed at all latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Mar a 08 Mar
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Mar 149 Previsto 06 Mar-08 Mar 150/145/145 Media de 90 Días 05 Mar 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Mar 015/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Mar 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 012/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Mar a 08 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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