Viendo archivo del martes, 4 marzo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 063 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Mar 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 flare occurred at 03/2105Z from a spotless plage field near S27E72. A large coronal mass ejection off the SE limb was observed on coronagraph imagery following this flare. There have been no white light developments near the source region in the past 24 hours and no other significant activity was noted. Region 296 (N11E21) remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk and now measures approximately 650 millionths in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Despite the size and complexity of this region, it has been rather quiet with just occasional plage fluctuations and minor surges observed. New Regions 301 (N21E36) and 302 (N19E62) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible primarily from Region 296, with a slight chance of a low M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. This disturbance is due to a high speed coronal hole stream that began late in the day yesterday.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels early, but will return to quiet to unsettled levels late on day one as the high speed stream subsides. Isolated active periods at mostly higher latitudes are possible through the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Mar a 07 Mar
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       04 Mar 146
  Previsto   05 Mar-07 Mar  145/145/145
  Media de 90 Días        04 Mar 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 03 Mar  011/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 04 Mar  020/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  015/015-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Mar a 07 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%35%30%
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%

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