Viendo archivo del lunes, 17 febrero 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 048 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Feb 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event was a C1.9 flare on the west limb. The most likely source was spotless Region 287 (N12W90). The majority of activity continues to come from the west limb and consist of B-class and minor C-class events. The only spotted region on the visible disk in Region 288 (N12E44). This region has remained a stable spot group with a simple beta magnetic configuration. Surging was the only observed activity from Region 288.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 288 has the potential for C-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Coronal hole effects continue to keep solar wind elevated between 600 and 650 km/s and Bz continues to be, on average, slightly negative.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. Coronal hole effects are expected to continue through the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Feb a 20 Feb
Clase M05%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 Feb 112
  Previsto   18 Feb-20 Feb  110/110/110
  Media de 90 Días        17 Feb 147
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Feb  009/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Feb  012/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Feb a 20 Feb
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%25%
Tormenta Menor10%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%40%30%
Tormenta Menor25%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%10%

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