Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 febrero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 047 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Feb 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was a C1.1 flare on the west limb at 16/0325 UTC. The most likely
source of this flare was Region 276 (S14, L=160) as determined by
NOAA/SXI imagery. Region 288 (N11E59) has rotated further onto the
visible disk revealing a DSO spot group with a beta magnetic
configuration. The plage of Region 288 exhibited nearly constant
surging. Region 282 (N11E82) produced plage fluctuations and has
shown some decrease in area coverage.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 282 and 288 have the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole
effects continue with solar wind gradually increasing to near 650
km/s and Bz continuing to be, on average, slightly southward. Major
storming conditions were observed at higher latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Peak activity is expected
on day two of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Feb 119 Previsto 17 Feb-19 Feb 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 16 Feb 147
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Feb 014/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 013/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 015/020-018/030-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 15% |
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