Viendo archivo del viernes, 24 enero 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 024 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Jan 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 266 (S19E31) produced an M1.9/1n flare at 24/0327 UTC with an associated Type II (600 km/s) and a Type IV radio sweep. LASCO imagery indicates a CME which was not Earth directed. Region 266 continues to grow in area size and spot count. Region 268 (N14W17) shows signs of polarity mixing and has developed a beta delta magnetic configuration. No activity was observed from this region.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 263, 266, and 268 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The effects from a geo-effective coronal hole continued today and produced an isolated active condition early in the period. Solar wind velocity increased to near 800 km/s around 24/1400 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit exceeded event threshold today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of isolated active conditions. The elevated solar wind velocity has the potential of producing active periods on day one. Day two and three are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Jan a 27 Jan
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Jan 130
  Previsto   25 Jan-27 Jan  125/120/120
  Media de 90 Días        24 Jan 159
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Jan  016/019
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  015/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  015/015-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Jan a 27 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%20%15%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%30%25%
Tormenta Menor20%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%

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