Viendo archivo del lunes, 20 enero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 020 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jan 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 260
(N14E13) produced the largest flare during the interval, a C4.3/Sf
event occurring at 20/0710 UTC. This region has shown a slight
increase in magnetic complexity and spot coverage since yesterday.
Region 259 (N10W15) has shown decay in the intermediate spot cluster
and remains simply structured. The solar disk was mostly quiescent
throughout the period. Regions 264 (S20W02, 265 (N04E31), 266
(S23E56), and 267 (S20E77) were newly assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with a brief
period of minor storm conditions (between 20/0000 to 0300 UTC) at
high latitudes. Coronal hole high speed stream effects from a
southern polar extension are believed to be responsible for the
elevated activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active conditions for day one of the
period as the favorably positioned coronal hole wanes. Day two
should see a return to predominantly unsettled conditions. By day
three a transequatorial recurrent coronal hole should become
geoeffective producing active to minor storm levels at both middle
and high latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jan 138 Previsto 21 Jan-23 Jan 135/130/120 Media de 90 Días 20 Jan 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jan 009/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 010/010-010/015-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 15% |
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