Viendo archivo del domingo, 19 enero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 019 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Jan 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Activity
during the interval was limited to low level B-class events.
Although there are a number of spotted regions on the solar disk
they were quiescent and magnetically remain simply structured.
Regions 261 (N26W47), 262 (S05W45), and 263 (S13W11) were newly
assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active
conditions commenced with an increase in the solar wind speed to
approximately 600 km/sec, believed to be associated with coronal
hole effects from the southern polar extension whose leading edge is
at about W53.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
day one of the forecast period. The geoeffective coronal hole
effects should subside by day two returning the field to
predominantly unsettled conditions thereafter.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Jan a 22 Jan
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Jan 130 Previsto 20 Jan-22 Jan 125/120/120 Media de 90 Días 19 Jan 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Jan 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Jan 013/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Jan a 22 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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