Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 enero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 013 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jan 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity continued at low levels. A C4/Sf flare
and associated CME was observed near the SW limb at 13/1615Z. The
flare began in Region 242 (S07W87) with sympathetic flaring observed
soon after in Region 244 (S22W84). Region 242 is also the confirmed
source of yesterday's C6 event at 12/1425Z. A prominence erupted off
the east limb near N14 at around 1400Z. No significant changes were
noted in the remaining regions. New Region 257 (N16E23) was numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible at higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jan a 16 Jan
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jan 172 Previsto 14 Jan-16 Jan 165/160/160 Media de 90 Días 13 Jan 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jan 004/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jan a 16 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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