Viendo archivo del miércoles, 18 diciembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 352 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Dec 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 226
(S28W15) produced two M-class flares today. The largest was an
M2.4/1n flare that occurred at 18/0642 UTC, a slightly smaller
M1.6/Sf flare occurred at 17/2335 UTC, with several lesser C-class
flares originating from this region today as well. The magnetic
delta spot configuration remains evident in the intermediate cluster
of spots. Region 229 (N19E12) did not produce optically correlated
flare activity during the period although the areal spot coverage
has increased and the magnetic gamma characteristics remain intact.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Regions 226 and 229 have the potential of
producing M-class event activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels once the onset of the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream begins, which is expected
to occur on day one of the forecast period. Day two should see
predominantly unsettled to active conditions with isolated periods
of minor storm levels. A return to predominantly unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods should occur on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Dec a 21 Dec
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Dec 197 Previsto 19 Dec-21 Dec 195/195/195 Media de 90 Días 18 Dec 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 020/035-018/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Dec a 21 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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