Viendo archivo del martes, 17 diciembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 351 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Dec 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 226 (S18W01)
produced an M1.9/1n flare at 16/2255 UTC. This region has continued
to grow in size and complexity, and appears to contain a magnetic
delta configuration in its intermediate spots. Shortly following
the aforementioned flare, Region 227 (N07W20) produced a subfaint
optical flare that corresponded with an impulsive M1.3 x-ray
enhancement at 16/2336 UTC. Other flare activity included several
C-class events from the regions noted above as well as Region 225
(N17E11). New Region 230 (S08E59) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. A slight chance for an
isolated major flare event is possible, particularly from Region
226.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet, with one isolated unsettled period
at higher latitudes during 17/1500-1800 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active during day one of the forecast
period, and predominantly active with isolated storming intervals
possible during the remainder of the period, due to the expected
onset of recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Dec 213 Previsto 18 Dec-20 Dec 205/205/195 Media de 90 Días 17 Dec 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Dec 003/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Dec 004/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 015/015-020/035-018/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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