Viewing archive of martes, 17 diciembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 351 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Dec 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 226 (S18W01) produced an M1.9/1n flare at 16/2255 UTC. This region has continued to grow in size and complexity, and appears to contain a magnetic delta configuration in its intermediate spots. Shortly following the aforementioned flare, Region 227 (N07W20) produced a subfaint optical flare that corresponded with an impulsive M1.3 x-ray enhancement at 16/2336 UTC. Other flare activity included several C-class events from the regions noted above as well as Region 225 (N17E11). New Region 230 (S08E59) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. A slight chance for an isolated major flare event is possible, particularly from Region 226.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet, with one isolated unsettled period at higher latitudes during 17/1500-1800 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active during day one of the forecast period, and predominantly active with isolated storming intervals possible during the remainder of the period, due to the expected onset of recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Dec a 20 Dec
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 Dec 213
  Previsto   18 Dec-20 Dec  205/205/195
  Media de 90 Días        17 Dec 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Dec  003/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Dec  004/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  015/015-020/035-018/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Dec a 20 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%35%30%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%45%40%
Tormenta Menor10%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%05%

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