Viendo archivo del lunes, 16 diciembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 350 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Dec 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 225 (N17E23) produced an M2/1n flare with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps at 16/1115 UTC. No CME was evident in LASCO imagery following this event. Other activity included numerous C-class flares from several regions, notably from 226 (S28E12), 227 (N07W07), and 229 (N18E37). All of today's flare producing regions have shown some growth in size and/or magnetic complexity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. The regions discussed in section 1A above all appear to be possible sources for isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with some isolated unsettled periods. A gradual reduction in high speed stream effects was apparent in data from the ACE satellite over the course of the day.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24-36 hours. Recurrent high speed stream effects are expected to develop on day two, and affect geomagnetic activity with isolated active and possible minor storm conditions, particularly on day three of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Dec a 19 Dec
Clase M45%45%45%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 Dec 203
  Previsto   17 Dec-19 Dec  200/200/195
  Media de 90 Días        16 Dec 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 15 Dec  005/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  005/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  010/010-015/015-020/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Dec a 19 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%25%35%
Tormenta Menor01%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%35%45%
Tormenta Menor05%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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