Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 diciembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 349 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Dec 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Numerous C-class events
occurred, with Region 226 (S28E25) being the most frequent source of
flare activity. However, Region 227 (N06E08) appeared in available
H-alpha and SOHO-EIT imagery to have been the source of the largest
event of the period, associated with an impulsive C5.9 x-ray
enhancement at 15/1804 UTC. Several other regions produced C-class
optical flares, including the closely spaced group of Regions
223/5/9 (collectively located near N20E45). Of these, Region 229
(N18E51) appears to be the largest and most complex. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a chance for isolated moderate flare
activity during the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Weak coronal hole high
speed stream effects persisted through the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days. Isolated
active and minor storm conditions are possible on day three, in
response to expected recurrent coronal hole effects
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Dec a 18 Dec
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Dec 203 Previsto 16 Dec-18 Dec 195/200/200 Media de 90 Días 15 Dec 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Dec 009/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Dec 007/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 010/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Dec a 18 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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