Viendo archivo del sábado, 7 diciembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 341 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Dec 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. An optically
uncorrelated C2 flare occurred at 07/1000 UTC. Region 208 (N09W38)
continues a gradual decay in area coverage and has simplified to a
beta magnetic configuration. Region 214 (N13W55) has grown slightly
in area coverage and developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Weak polarity mixing has developed in the intermediate area. No
other significant changes on the visible disk were observed in the
last twenty-four hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to coronal
hole effects. Solar wind velocities reached peak values near 600
km/s at 07/0900 UTC and have stabilized near 550 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been
predominantly positive resulting in only isolated active conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions on day one and day two of the forecast period. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected by day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Dec a 10 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Dec 151 Previsto 08 Dec-10 Dec 155/160/165 Media de 90 Días 07 Dec 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Dec 006/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Dec 012/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 015/020-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Dec a 10 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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