Viendo archivo del martes, 3 diciembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 03 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 337 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Dec 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 208 (N11E22) produced the largest event of the period, an impulsive C8/Sn flare at 03/0818 UTC. This region has declined in penumbral area but retains moderate magnetic complexity. Region 207 (S19W06) produced a few B-class events over the course of the day. New Region 213 (N15E79) rotated into view and was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with a chance for isolated moderate flare activity during the next three days. Region 208 is a possible source of low level M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again for the fifth consecutive day.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may persist at high levels for the next one to two days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Dec a 06 Dec
Clase M30%30%35%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       03 Dec 146
  Previsto   04 Dec-06 Dec  150/165/170
  Media de 90 Días        03 Dec 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 02 Dec  009/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 03 Dec  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  010/012-005/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Dec a 06 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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