Viendo archivo del viernes, 22 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 326 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 198 (S18W12)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C3.4/Sf flare occurring
at 22/1542 UTC. Region has shown decay this period as penumbral
coverage has decreased and gamma portion of the magnetic field has
become less discernable, although it is still intact. Region 201
(S16W22) showed some growth today adding several umbra to group's
total spot count. No new spot groups were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 198 has the potential to produce M-class flare
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
transequatorial coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere
continues to elevate the high speed solar wind (today's approximate
average speed of 625 km/s). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosychronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated minor storm
conditions (mostly at high latitudes) are possible through day one
as the magnetosphere continues to be under the influence of the high
speed solar wind. Days two and three should return to quiet to
unsettled conditions as the high speed stream wanes. The greater
the 2 MeV electron flux at GOES should reach daily moderate to high
levels throughout the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Nov a 25 Nov
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Nov 149 Previsto 23 Nov-25 Nov 150/155/165 Media de 90 Días 22 Nov 173
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Nov 022/050 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Nov 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Nov a 25 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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