Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 noviembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 325 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Nov 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Multiple C-class flares were observed today, all from Region 198 (S18E02). The largest flare was a C6.6/Sf that occurred at 21/1104 UTC. Magnetic complexity and white-light spot coverage went mostly unchanged today. Region 195 (S17W24) continues to undergo a slow but steady decay. A small cluster of umbra materialized today between the two previously mentioned regions becoming newly numbered Region 201 (S16W09).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected at low to moderate levels. Region 198 remains capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at active to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm conditions were seen at all latitudes and a period of severe storm levels were observed at high latitudes between 21/0600 to 0900 UTC. Elevated geomagnetic activity is in response to a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm to severe storm conditions (mostly at high latitudes) are possible through day one. A steady return to quiet to unsettled conditions should occur during the remainder of the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit should reach moderate to high levels by day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Nov a 24 Nov
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Nov 151
  Previsto   22 Nov-24 Nov  150/150/155
  Media de 90 Días        21 Nov 173
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Nov  013/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  035/055
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  025/035-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Nov a 24 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%30%20%
Tormenta Menor25%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo45%35%25%
Tormenta Menor25%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%15%05%

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