Viendo archivo de miércoles, 20 noviembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 324 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Nov 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 198 (S18E15) produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare at 20/1807 UTC. Magnetic complexity exhibits little change from yesterday and areal spot coverage remained unchanged. The trailing most spots are all that remain visible in white-light from Region 191 (S18W81) as it transits the west limb. There was no flare activity recorded from this region today although a rare spray feature was observed in the H-alpha wavelength at 20/1938 UTC overlaying the region. The remaining regions were quiescent during the period. Regions 199 (N27E13) and 200 (N00E71) were newly assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 198 has the potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. NASA/ACE depicted a modest increase in the solar wind speed beginning at approximately 20/1000 UTC. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field made a sharp southward movement just prior to 20/1600 UTC which brought about the onset of active conditions at all latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active conditions, through the forecast period, as a favorably positioned high speed stream coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Isolated minor storm conditions could occur during the high speed streams influence, especially at high latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Nov a 23 Nov
Clase M60%50%50%
Clase X10%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 Nov 159
  Previsto   21 Nov-23 Nov  155/150/150
  Media de 90 Días        20 Nov 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 19 Nov  012/014
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  012/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  015/018-015/020-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Nov a 23 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%30%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%40%
Tormenta Menor20%20%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%15%15%

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