Viendo archivo del miércoles, 20 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 324 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
198 (S18E15) produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare at 20/1807 UTC.
Magnetic complexity exhibits little change from yesterday and areal
spot coverage remained unchanged. The trailing most spots are all
that remain visible in white-light from Region 191 (S18W81) as it
transits the west limb. There was no flare activity recorded from
this region today although a rare spray feature was observed in the
H-alpha wavelength at 20/1938 UTC overlaying the region. The
remaining regions were quiescent during the period. Regions 199
(N27E13) and 200 (N00E71) were newly assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 198 has the potential to produce M-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. NASA/ACE
depicted a modest increase in the solar wind speed beginning at
approximately 20/1000 UTC. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field made a sharp southward movement just prior to 20/1600
UTC which brought about the onset of active conditions at all
latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active conditions,
through the forecast period, as a favorably positioned high speed
stream coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Isolated minor storm
conditions could occur during the high speed streams influence,
especially at high latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Nov a 23 Nov
| Clase M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Nov 159 Previsto 21 Nov-23 Nov 155/150/150 Media de 90 Días 20 Nov 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Nov 012/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Nov 012/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 015/018-015/020-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Nov a 23 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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