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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Nov 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to the occurrence of two M-class events, the first being an impulsive M1.0 flare observed at 14/2226 UTC. No corresponding optical report was received, however available H-alpha imagery suggests Region 195 (S15E53) as the likely source. This region appears to be developing a delta configuration in its leading spot, and has grown in size and spot count. At 15/0124 UTC, an optically uncorrelated M2.4 flare occurred. LASCO imagery following this event suggests an east limb source, possibly the newly numbered Region 198 (S16E78), which has just rotated into view. Other activity included a series of C-class events from Region 192 (N13W47), the largest being a C8/Sf at 15/0536 UTC. This region has exhibited significant growth in size and complexity over the past two days. Region 191 (S18W16) remains the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, but produced only minor C-class activity today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with a chance for isolated major flare activity over the next three days. The regions discussed in section 1A above are all likely candidates for notable flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods possible during the first two days of the forecast period, under the influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole. Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected by day three, along with elevated flux levels for energetic electrons in the wake of the expected coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Nov a 18 Nov
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Nov 198
  Previsto   16 Nov-18 Nov  200/200/195
  Media de 90 Días        15 Nov 177
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  010/011
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  020/030-018/025-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Nov a 18 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor15%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%

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