Viendo archivo del jueves, 14 noviembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Nov 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. The largest event was a long duration M1.0 x-ray flare, observed early in the period at 14/0017 UTC, accompanied by an extended parallel ribbon enhancement visible in H-alpha imagery in the central and southeast portion of Region 191 (S18W01). A partial halo CME was evident in LASCO imagery following the flare, but did not appear to be earth-directed. Region 191 appears to have developed a weak delta configuration among its intermediate spots in the last 24 hours. Region 192 (N13W34) exhibited moderate growth today and produced a C-class flare late in the period. Region 195 (S16E65) produced several C-class events, the largest being a C8/1n at 14/1345 UTC. Two new regions were numbered today: 196 (S19W46) and 197 (N25E73).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with a slight chance for a major flare during the next three days. Regions 191 and 192 are potential sources of significant flare activity. In addition, Region 197 appears bright in EIT imagery and is expected to rotate into full view as a large region with good flare potential.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to become more active over the course of the forecast period with isolated minor storm periods possible, due to the anticipated influence of a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective heliographic longitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Nov a 17 Nov
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Nov 184
  Previsto   15 Nov-17 Nov  185/185/185
  Media de 90 Días        14 Nov 177
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Nov  016/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  010/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  015/020-020/030-018/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Nov a 17 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%40%35%
Tormenta Menor10%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%45%30%
Tormenta Menor10%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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