Viendo archivo del lunes, 11 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 315 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S11W69)
produced two M-class flares, an M2/2N at 11/0733 UTC and an M1/1N at
11/1620 UTC. The M1 flare was of fairly long duration and was
accompanied by a type II sweep. Although the region appears to have
simplified a little from the recent activity, it still retains
moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 191 (S18E39) is the
largest sunspot group presently on the disk but has been relatively
quiet over the past 24 hours. New Region 192 (N13E08) emerged on the
disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 180 remains the most likely source of M-class
flares and Region 191 appears capable of an M-flare as well.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event ended at 11/0525 UTC. The event began at 09/1920 UTC
and had a 404 pfu peak at 10/0540 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next few hours. The
arrival of a shock from the M4/CME flare that occurred on 09
November is still possible. Active to storm conditions are possible
on 12 November if this CME impacts the Earth. SOHO-LASCO images
received after the three-day geomagnetic forecast was finalized
suggest that another CME was associated with the M1/1n flare
mentioned in Part IA. Consequently, the numerical and probability
forecasts for the third day in Parts V and VI below may be modified
in tomorrow's forecast product.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Nov a 14 Nov
| Clase M | 80% | 70% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Nov 185 Previsto 12 Nov-14 Nov 180/175/170 Media de 90 Días 11 Nov 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Nov 012/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Nov 008/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 020/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Nov a 14 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 50% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
lunes, 22 abril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
sábado, 23 marzo 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
miércoles, 20 marzo 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Últimos mensajes del foro
What are these long and thin eruptions? 5IMF - BT strength 3AR 3637, 3638, 3643 89Unproven theories 341Space Weather Memes 338
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/04/25 | M1.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 133.4 +25.6 |