Viendo archivo del jueves, 24 octubre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 297 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Oct 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 162 (N26W04) produced the largest of the few flares occurring today, an impulsive C7/1n at 1810UTC. Modest discrete frequency bursts and a type IV sweep accompanied the flare. The flare site was just west of the large leader spot, far from the seemingly more complicated central portion of this elongated group. The serpentine plage field spans the full extent of the region. Two new regions were assigned, Region 168 (N24W66) and 169 (S19E75).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels during the past 24 hours. The disturbance was fueled by high speed solar wind (approx. 700 km/s), emanating from a large coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere. The speed began to increase substantially around 0800UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours, as the high speed solar wind continues to buffet the magnetosphere. Conditions are then expected return to more normal levels during the last 48 hours, as the solar wind calms.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Oct a 27 Oct
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Oct 160
  Previsto   25 Oct-27 Oct  160/155/155
  Media de 90 Días        24 Oct 179
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Oct  006/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  030/040
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Oct a 27 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo50%40%25%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo60%50%30%
Tormenta Menor25%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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