Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 octubre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 289 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Oct 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C7/Sf flare from Region 160 (S20E28) that occurred at 16/0314 UTC. This region has seen steady growth in penumbral coverage today. Region 149 (N14W20) produced only lesser C-class flares during the period. There was slight growth observed in total number of spots today in this region and the beta-gamma magnetic structure became more apparent during the period. An optically uncorrelated long duration C6 x-ray flare occurred at 16/1627 UTC. There were insufficient imagery at the time of this writing to determine whether a CME was associated with this event. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes between 16/1800-2100 UTC. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite hinted at the possibility of a weak shock passage commencing shortly after 16/1600 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with periods of active conditions possible throughout the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Oct a 19 Oct
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 Oct 183
  Previsto   17 Oct-19 Oct  180/175/175
  Media de 90 Días        16 Oct 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 15 Oct  013/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  012/014
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  010/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Oct a 19 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%30%25%
Tormenta Menor05%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%

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